Thursday, December 3, 2015

Why Kenta Maeda could get paid this year

It's been reported that Japanese star pitcher Kenta Maeda could hit the market this off season, which could shake things up a bit in the market for pitchers.  What makes him so valuable is the fact that he won the award for best pitcher in the NPB two years in a row and in last year's outing against the MLB stars he gave up no runs and two hits in five innings.
He also helped lead Japan to a third place finish in this year's WBSC Premier 12.  Against Mexico Maeda pitched five innings.  He gave up 2 ER, and five hits while striking out 7 and walking 1.  His FO to GO ratio was 3/5.  Against Puerto Rico Maeda pitched 7 innings.  He gave up 4 hits and no runs while striking out 7 batters.  He also had no walks.  His fly out to ground out ratio was a bit higher at 6/7.
Maeda also has success in the World Baseball Classic.
Against China in the WBC Maeda pitched five innings, gave up no runs, gave up 1 hit, walked 1 batter, and had 6 strike outs.  His fly out to ground out ratio in this game was 2/6.  Against The Nederlands Maeda pitched five innings.  He gave up no runs, had 9 strike outs, no walks, and gave up only one hit.  His fly out to ground out ratio was 2/3.  Against Puerto Rico Maeda pitched five innings.  He gave up 4 hits, gave up one earned run, had 2 walks, and 3 strike outs.  His fly out to ground out ratio in this game was 2/3.
As you see he's one of Japan's best pitchers and what makes him so valuable is the fact that he's barely hitting his prime.  He's only 27 and he's got so much potential to perform at an ace type level.  He's a strike out pitcher and he doesn't give up a lot of runs.
Kenta has used the WBC and the Premier 12 to help show case his talent along with the game against the MLB Stars.  He's been turned down request to be posted to the MLB, but according to reports his request to be posted to the MLB may be granted.
Considering he's so young the posting fee may be at a high $20 million

Market for Johnny Cueto

It was reported yesterday that Johnny Cueto turned down an offer worth $120 million by the Diamondbacks.  If you looked at his numbers after being traded to the Royals you'll see that maybe he isn't worth big time money, but if you look at his numbers you'll think otherwise.  Unless you're Clayton Kershaw you don't have an ERA lower than Johnny Cueto, and to add a resume he's also an inning eater and he throws a lot of strike outs.  Also, if you look at run prevention he's up there with the best considering he's in the top five in run prevention.  Maybe Arizona ups their ante or a team like the Cardinals would be in the mix.  It's scary to think that ST Louis would need someone to help them continue to win, but their rotation has a lot of holes and a pitcher like Cueto would fill that need.  Once Greinke comes off the market the other 2 pitchers left on my top four would be Samarzija and Cueto, so teams would go after them hard.  Other good teams that needs pitching would be the Giants, I feel like the Blue Jays could use depth in their rotation, and the Yankees could use starting rotation depth.

How much Zach Greinke could get

David Price just got paid $217 million for 7 years at the Boston Red Sox. 
In the last 2 seasons David Price has an ERA+ of 134 which is tenth among starting pitchers, he has an FIP of 2.78 which is 7th among starting pitchers, and a WAR of 10.6 which is 9th among starting pitchers. 
If you look into the average fast ball speed in the last four years his velocity hasn't been where it was in 2012.  2012 Price's average fast ball was at 95.5 MPH, in 2013 Price's average fastball was 93.5 MPH, in 2014 Price's average fast ball was at 93.2 MPH, and in 2015 Price's average fastball was at 94.2 MPH. 
In 2012 Price's K% was 24.5%, in 2013 the K% for Price was 20.4%, in 2014 the K% was 26.9%, in 2015 the K% was 25.3%.  In 2012 Price's walk percentage was 7.1%, in 2013 Price's walk percentage was 3.7%, in 2014 Price's walk percentage was 3.8%, in 2015 Price's walk percentage was 5.3%.  In 2012 Price's swinging strike percentage was 8.4%, in 2013 his swinging strike percentage was 8.0%, in 2014 his swinging strike percentage was 10.6%, and in 2015 his swinging strike percentage was at a career high 11.9%. 
Now, let's look at Price in the post season.
David Price's post season career looks like this:
63.1 innings, 5.12 ERA
2015 season:
23.1 innings pitched, 6.17 ERA, 23 K, 3BB
Okay, that was all of David Price.  Let's take a look at other pitchers
Go back to 2011.  The best pitchers that year based on WAR was Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and Jared Weaver.  All five of these guys have fallen off a cliff.
Halladay's WAR was 8.9, Lee's WAR was 8.6, Verlander's WAR was 8.4, Sabathia's WAR was 7.5, Weaver's WAR was 7.0. 
Halladay's following 2 years of WAR
2012 0.9
2013 -0.9
Lee's WAR in 2014 was an alarming 0.8 and Lee did not pitch in 2015.
Verlander's WAR in 2014 was just 1.1.
Weaver's WAR in 2015 was just 0.3.
With all that said there's been reports of Jeff Samardzija has received a $100 million offer and Johnny Cueto just turned down a contract that was worth $120 million.  Also, keep in mind that Jordan Zimmerman just signed a contract that was worth more than $100 million.  So, the question remains how much could Greinke get?  If history repeats itself then Greinke shouldn't get a lengthy contract, but, Greinke should get paid still.  I'd have to go 6 years at $210.  That's more money than Price per year which would be a great value for Greinke.  You wouldn't have to hit that age 40 season and you would still get a great amount of value.

Friday, July 31, 2015

Trade Deadline Recap 2015

Heading into Thursday we already saw big names moved.  Cole Hamels went to the Rangers, Jonathan Papelbon went to the Nationals, Troy Tulowitzki went to the Blue Jays, Scott Kazmir went to the Houston, and Aramis Ramirez went to the Pirates.  More moves had been made yesterday and today and I'll let you know everything that has happened yesterday and today.

The Toronto Blue Jays acquired David Price from the Detroit Tigers for Matt Boyde, Daniel Norris, and Jario Labourt.  The ST Louis Cardinals acquired Brandon Moss from the Cleveland Indians for Rob Kaminsky.  There was a three team trade involving the Dodgers, the Marlins, and the Braves.  The Dodgers acquired Matt Latos, Michael Morse, Alex Wood, Jim Johnson, Luis Avilan, Bronson Arroyo, and Jose Peraza, the Braves acquired Hector Olivera, Zachary Bird, Paco Rodriguez, and a draft pick from the Marlins, and the Marlins acquired Jeff Brigham, Victor Arauo, and Kevin Guzman.  The Yankees acquired Dustin Ackley from the Mariners for Ramon Flores and Jose Ramirez.  The White Sox acquired Justin Sellers for a player to be named.  The Astros acquired Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers, and the 76th international signing slot from the Brewers for Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Josh Hader, and Adrian Houser.  The Pirates acquired Joakin Soria from the Tigers for JaCoby Jones.

Today being the trade deadline was busy as expected.  The Giants acquired Mike Leake from the Reds for Adam Duvail and Keury Mella.  The Cardinals acquired Jonathan Broxton and cash considerations from the Brewers for Malik Collymore.  The Orioles acquired Gerado Parra from the Brewers for Zach Davies.  The Blue Jays acquired Mark Lowe from the Mariners for Nick Wells, Jacob Brentz, and Rob Rasmussen.  The Cubs acquired Dan Haren from the Marlins for Ivan Pineyro and Elliot Soto.  The Twins acquired Kevin Jepsen from the Rays for Chih Wei Hu and Alexis Tapia.  The Blue Jays acquired Ben Revera from the Phillies for Jimmy Cordero and Alberto Tirado.  The Mets acquired Yoenis Cespedes from the Tigers for Michael Fulmer and Luis Cessa.  The Cubs acquired Tommy Hunter from the Orioles for Junior Lakes.  The Pirates acquired JA Happ from the Mariners for Adrian Sampson.  The A's acquired Felix Doubront from the Blue Jays for cash considerations.  The Rangers acquired Sam Dyson from the Marlins for Tomas Telis and Cody Ege.  The Pirates acquired Marc Rzepcynski from the Indians for Abraham Almonte.  The Padres acquired Michael Morse from the Dodgers for Jose Tabata.

I like what the Astros did this week by adding pitching and hitting, I also liked what the Mets were able to bring in this week as well considering that they were near the bottom in hitting coming into the week.  Now the Mets should have a better offense as they try and push towards the playoffs.  If you look at what the Pirates did you'll see that they were able to add depth in their lineup and depth in their bull pen.  Toronto also showed that they're going all in this week by bring in Tulo and Price.  They also added Ben Revera and Mark Lowe so that's added depth in their outfield and rotation.  One thing that did surprise me were the Padres.  They were rumored to become sellers this week and they didn't make one big trade at all.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Recap for Trade Week so far

Teams currently making a push for the playoffs are trying to deal for players to help them out to make a push towards the playoffs.  A lot of players who are more likely to be traded are players with one year left on their contracts.  When you deal for players with multiple years on their contract I view this as a win because not only did you improve for this year, but you also improved for next year.

Last Thursday the Pirates started the trading party as they acquired Aramis Ramirez from the Brewers for Yhonathan Barrios.  The Astros then traded Daniel Mengden and Jacob Nottingham to the A's for Scott Kazmir.

Last Friday the Angels acquired Conor Gillaspie from the White Sox for cash considerations, the Mets traded John Grant and Rob Whalen to the Braves for Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson, and the Cardinals traded Kyle Barraclough to the Marlins for Steve Cishek.

Last Saturday was quiet, but Sunday made headlines as the Royals acquired Johnny Cueto from the Reds for Brandon Finnegan, John Lamb, and Cody Reed.

On Monday the Angels acquired Shane Victorino from the Red Sox for Josh Rutledge and cash considerations, and the Mets traded Casey Meisner to the A's for Tyler Clippard.

Tuesday was a very busy day.  The Blue Jays got things started by trading Jose Reyes, Jeff Hoffman, Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco to the Rockies for Troy Tulowitzki and LaTroy Hawkins, the Royals acquired Ben Zorbist from the Astros for Aaron Brooks and Sean Manaea, the Nationals acquired Jonathan Papelbon and got cash considerations from the Phillies for Nick Pivetta, the Angels got David DeJesus from the Rays for Eduar Lopez, and the Angels also got David Murphy from the Indians for Eric Stamets.

On Wednesday the Pirates acquired Joe Blanton from the Royals for cash considerations.  The Rangers acquired Cole Hamels, Jake Diekman, got cash considerations from the Phillies for Matt Harrison, Jorge Altaro, Nick Williams, Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, and Jerad Eickhorr.

The Pirates needed a bat and they got one in Aramis Ramirez.  The Pirates also added depth in pitching in Joe Blanton.  I like what the Blue Jays and Rockies did.  The Blue Jays got a bat in their lineup in Tulo and a very good reliever in LaTroy Hawkins.  As for the Rockies, they now add top tier prospects in terms of pitching in Jeff Hoffman Miguel Castro, and Jesus Tinoco, and they also got one of the best lead off hitters in Jose Reyes.  I'd put him at leadoff and Blackman in the 2 hole.

I love the Royals moves so far.  They needed someone who can fill in the left field position in Ben Zorbis and they also got what they needed in Johnny Cueto.  Cueto eats up a lot of innings and the Royals needed an inning eater.

Entering the week I thought the Nationals had a really good closer, they added another closer in Johnathan Papelbon which is a nice thing to have.

The Mets added depth to a lineup that needs help in Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson and the Mets also added depth in their bullpen in Tyler Clippard.

I cannot say that I liked all of the moves that the Angels made, but I did like the fact that they added outfield depth.  They added Victorino, David DeJesus, and David Murphy, all who can hit which was what the Angels needed.

I liked what the Astros did by adding depth in their rotation in Scott Kazmir.  Now, you are not only in it to win the division but you just added depth in your starting rotation.  If I'm Houston I know I'm not the problem in the AL West.

The Rangers entered last night only 4 games out of the playoffs.  They went on and added Cole Hamels.  Say things doesn't work out to their best this year they can look for next year.  Darvish and Hamels would be a nice 1-2 punch in that rotation.

The Phillies are ready for the future.  The Phillies got Nick Piretta who has a 92MPH sinker, not bad, and I also like Jorge Alfaro and Matt Harrison.  Harrison will be a good fit in the Phillies rotation and I like Jorge Alfaro's bat.

If you look at what the Reds did in the Cueto deal you'll notice one name, Brandon Finnegan.  He pitched for the Royals last year in the world series and he's having a good year so for in the minors.

It's been a good week full of trades so far and there will be more trades before Friday's deadline.  I'll have the complete recap from today and tomorrow tomorrow night.